Pakistan is at a crucial point, with current instability and many tribal areas controlled by militant extremists. Osama bin Laden is believed to be in Pakistan, harbored in a tribal area, near the Afghanistan border.
In the 1960s, Pakistan's future looked promising, with tolerant people and one of the most free economies in Asia. After the breakup of Pakistan in 1971, banking, large industries, educational institutions were nationalized by the Peoples Party. Free enterprise and the economy subsequently suffered. A sudden increase in money supply, with the loss of East Pakistan (Bangledesh), there was sharp inflation with increased prices.[1]
In 1977, a coup ousted Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and Zia-ul-Haq took over rule in 1978. Soon thereafter, he enacted various laws, including alcohol prohibition, curtailing the entertainment industry, declaring Ahmedies as Non-Muslim, flogging for political differences, stoning to death under Hudood Ordinance, and general curtailment of freedom of women. This raised tensions, and many of those able to leave the country did so, emigrating to other countries. These people included many of the brightest and best minds. Subsequent governments of Benazir Bhuto and Nawaz Sharif were not able to reverse the trend.[2]
More people fled the country in 1998, after Pakistan tested nuclear weapons, fearing war with India. By this point, Pakistan had become a haven for terrorists. In 1999, Musharraf took over the country in a bloodless coup. Musharraf desired change, but he compromised with the elements in government who desired status quo. Musharraf did move on amending the Hudood Bill in 2005, but numerous restrictions on freedom remain.[3]
In testimony before the U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee, National Intelligence Director John Negroponte said that "eliminating the safe haven that the Taliban and other extremists have found in Pakistan’s tribal areas is not sufficient to end the insurgency in Afghanistan, but it is necessary... The terrorists are cultivating stronger operational connections and relationships that radiate outward from their leaders’ secure hideout in Pakistan to affiliates throughout the Middle East, North Africa and Europe."[4]
The relations with Afghanistan and control of areas near the border are complicated by the fact that the Durand Line artificially divides the Pashtuns. The border was set in 1893 to separate British India and Afghanistan. Today, the border is largely considered irrelevant by Pashtuns.
There are seven semi-autonomous units, with federally appointed administrative agents, in this area of Pakistan: Bajaur, Momand, Khyber, Orakzai, Kurram and North and South Waziristan. "Six smaller Frontier Regions provide a buffer between the agencies and the North West Frontier Province to the east. To the south is the large but sparsely populated province of Baluchistan, whose capital, Quetta, is said to be a Taliban command center."[5]
"In the tribal regions, Pakistani courts and law enforcers have almost no sway, and the real power are the jirgas, or assemblies of elders, says Hassan Abbas, author of Pakistan's Drift into Extremism: Allah, the Army and America's War on Terror."[6]
The border region is characterized as having a "population of some 38 million, including members of 60 Pashtun tribes and 400 sub-clans. With a literacy rate of little more than 10 per cent, few job opportunities beyond subsistence farming, deeply conservative religious views and an abundance of guns, the regions are a staging ground for militancy, drug trafficking and numerous smuggling rackets."[7]
In February 2007:
| “ | U.S. officials said there was mounting evidence that Osama bin Laden and his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahri, had been steadily building an operations hub in the mountainous Pakistani tribal area of North Waziristan. The United States has identified several new Qaida compounds in North Waziristan. Officials said that both U.S. and foreign intelligence services had collected evidence leading them to conclude that at least one of the camps in Pakistan might be training operatives capable of striking Western targets. U.S. analysts said recent intelligence showed that the compounds functioned under a loose command structure and were operated by groups of Arab, Pakistani and Afghan fighters allied with al-Qaida. They receive guidance from their commanders and al-Zawahri, the analysts said. Bin Laden, who has long played less of an operational role, appears to have little direct involvement. Officials said the training camps had yet to reach the size and level of sophistication of the Qaida camps established in Afghanistan under Taliban rule. But groups of 10 to 20 men are being trained at the camps, the officials said, and the Qaida infrastructure in the region is gradually maturing. Officials said that the United States still had little idea where bin Laden and al-Zawahri had been hiding since 2001, but that the two men were not thought to be present in the camps currently operating in North Waziristan. Analysts said North Waziristan became a hub of militant activity last year, after Gen. Pervez Musharraf, the Pakistani president, negotiated a treaty with tribal leaders in the area. He pledged to pull troops back to barracks in the area in exchange for tribal leaders' ending support for cross-border attacks into Afghanistan. But officials in Washington say the agreement has largely been a failure. [8][9] | ” |
Bin Laden recently appeared on a video tape, in which he "called on Pakistanis to overthrow President Pervez Musharraf" and urged holy war.[10] In the tribal areas, there have been numerous attacks by extremists against the Pakistani military.
"A report in The New York Times claims Pakistan's intelligence services are behind a reinvigorated Taliban insurgency -- a report that an expert on Central Asia, and Afghanistan, the Australian National University's Matthew Gray, says is very credible. Gray says Pakistan's powerful Inter-Services Intelligence has a long tradition of supporting the Taliban for strategic reasons. 'The Taliban types come out of a particular Pushtun tribe. Pakistan is nervous about Pushtun nationalism and they figure the best way to neutralise that is to promote radical islamists,' he says."[11]
The Pakistan government bars journalists from the border region, without a permit (which are rarely granted). Nonetheless, 'New York Times correspondent Carlotta Gall got into the border towns of Chaman and Quetta without permission. She found "signs that Pakistani authorities are encouraging the insurgents, if not sponsoring them." The credibility of her findings was strengthened when Pakistani intelligence agents broke into her hotel room, knocked her to the floor, and took away her computer, notebook, and cellphone, presumably to find out whom she had interviewed.'[12]
Musharraf came to power in October 1999, after a bloodless coup. This was in response to an attempt by then prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, to oust Musharraf as head of the army.[18]
With some cooperation in the years after 9/11, Pakistan was able to capture Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and Abu Zubaydah. Despite his rhetoric that his would be a moderate and tolerate government, many elements in his government run contrary to that. Conditions have deteriorated in recent years, with Musharraf's becoming more hard-line and elements within his regime supporting the Taliban and the insurgency. There are reports that his army is quietly aiding the Taliban.[19]
A.Q. Khan, who trafficked nuclear technology out of Pakistan, was quickly pardoned in 2004, while the U.S. and U.N. were barred from interrogating him.[20]
In the fall of 2006, the Pakistan government released "weapons and militant prisoners who sympathize with the Taliban in the restive enclave of North Waziristan, extracting in return vows of peace. The truce was never debated before parliament, something that caused concern among members of the opposition parties."[21] Though, this move was not really a truce, but rather a retreat by Pakistan from the tribal region.[22]
On February 26, 2007, the same day as the visit by Dick Cheney, Pakistan arrested Mullah Obaidullah Akhund, the Taliban's former defence minister. Akhund was considered one of the top three Taliban leaders. This was the first time that Pakistan took action openly against Taliban leaders. Barnett Rubin, a scholar on Afghanistan at NYU, remarked, "Cheney must have asked them politely," with a laugh. "He must have asked them nicely, and then they started looking and they found him in just one or two days, it's amazing." Pakistan may know how and where to find some of these top leaders, but for political reasons, has been reluctant to do so.[23]
Iftikhar Chaudhary, chief justice of Pakistan's Supreme Court, was suspended on March 9, 2007 after meeting with Musharraf.[24] Following the dismissal, he was kept under "de facto house arrest" during the weekend, and his passport and mobile phone were taken.[25] Chaudhary had served as a check to Musharraf's power. He ruled against the sale of a 75 percent stake in the state-owned Pakistan Steel Mills to a Saudi venture capital group, which included Russian investors and a Pakistani group with ties to Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz. That decision that irritated Musharraf.[26][27]
Chaudhary has also questioned why "terrorism suspects" in custody had disappeared.[28] These have included poets, doctors, housewives, nuclear scientists, and other "enemies of the state" that Pakistani intelligences services have captured and accused of terrorism, treason, and murder. These people have not been brought to trial, but remain missing. The Human Rights Commission of Pakistan estimates 400 such cases since 2002, possibly hundreds more than that.[29]
Musharraf has not been able to draw popularity among his constituency. Many Pakistanis view Musharraf as a puppet of the Bush administration.[30] Musharraf has relied on external support to maintain power, along with actions such as interfering in the judiciary, to maintain his legitimacy. He has a history of such actions, such as in 2000, when he removed 18 judges (including a chief justice) who refused to take oaths.[31]
The Supreme Court is important in the elections, since it is involved in considering Musharraf's eligibility for presidency, whilst remaining in uniform. Samina Ahmed of the International Crisis Group noted that "Musharraf now faces a real problem in getting a seal of approval from the US on his re-election plans as the minimum international standard for a free and fair election is an independent judiciary."[32]
The dismissal of Chaudhary sparked protests in Karachi on March 11, a national strike on March 12, and other actions.[33] In Lahore, lawyers took to the streets in protest, but many were beaten by police wielding batons.[34] Qazi Hussain Ahmed, leader of Jamiaat-i-Islami, was among those arrested in Islamabad during protests, which continued throughout the week.[35] Rafiq Tarar, a former president of Pakistan, was detained in Lahore, along with hundreds of other opposition figures from a broad range of groups in Islamabad, Lahore, and elsewhere.[36][37] The government brought in thousands of reinforcements from Punjab province to bolster the police force.[38] Police also used tear gas and batons on hundreds of protesters that were gathered in Islamabad on March 16th.[39]
The government took also action to take Geo TV and Aaj TV, two leading broadcasters, off the air after they refused to stop broadcasting about the protests.[40] The offices of Geo TV were raided and ransacked, breaking windows, smashing office equipment, roughing up employees, releasing tear gas, and firing rubber bullets.[41][42][43] Musharraf did issue an apology on March 16th (Friday) on live television, regarding the actions against Geo TV.[44] But, it is unlikely that this attack on the media happened without knowledge or approval from government leaders.[45]
A hearing for Chaudhary was scheduled for March 18 in Islamabad, before the Supreme Judicial Council, a five-member body of judges. Ahead of the hearing, authorities brought in thousands of police reinforcements and sealed off the capital, in order to minimize protests.[46] The government had not explained what the allegations were, but newspapers in Pakistan reported on March 21 that Chaudhary was accused of "using his position to get a job for his son, using too many official cars and requesting the use of government airplanes." Chaudhary's lawyers denied these allegations.[47] The hearing was postponed until April 3.[48]
On [Monday] March 19, Jawad Khawaja, a high court judge in Lahore, stepped down in protest, along with six judges from Sindh province.[49] In his resignation letter, Khawaja wrote, "I have waited a few days before addressing you, in the hope something will be done to remedy the harm done to the judicial organ of the state. It seems I have waited in vain."[50]
Commenting on the events in Pakistan, U.S. State Department spokesperson Sean McCormack defended Musharraf, "President Musharraf has made a commitment to change Pakistan, and we think that that is a positive thing."[51]
This situation comes as Pakistan is gearing up for elections (a vote by national and provincial assemblies) for President on October 6. Musharraf's current term ends on November 15.[52] There are questions regarding Musharraf's eligibility, regarding the fact that he is also serving as chief of the Army.
The Bush administration has been supportive of Musharraf, stating its belief that he is "better than the alternatives in Pakistan, which include Islamic extremists and anti-Western generals." When meeting with U.S. officials, Musharraf plays up the dangers of Islamic extremism. Bush also cites two narrow assassination attempts on Musharraf, demonstrating his tenuous grip on power.[54] In reality, the Pakistan People's Party and its leader, Benazir Bhutto, are the second most popular in polling, and not Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal, the main religious extremist party or any other extremists.[55]
Afghan President Hamid Karzai has been adamant that the U.S. government needs to take a tougher stance against General Pervez Musharraf, in light of his regime's support of the Taliban.[56] Bush may be too busy dealing with problems in Iraq, to really give needed attention to the corruption, regarding the elections. Use of Pakistani airspace is also important for NATO operations in Afghanistan.[57]
Aside from what the Bush administration can do, Congress also has the ability to act on this. In a Homeland Security omnibus bill passed in January/February 2007, there was a provision that prohibited additional economic and military aid unless Bush certifies that "the Pakistani government is making all possible efforts to prevent the Taliban from operating in areas under its sovereign control." Though, there was a loophole that allows Bush to waive the ban if "it is important to the national security interest of the United States to do so." The bill also did not cover Pentagon subsidies to the Pakistan military.[58] Democrats in Congress have also pushed for contingencies on foreign aid, that Pakistan makes "progress towards meaningful democracy."[59]
Commenting on a resolution co-sponsored by fellow Democrats John Kerry and Joe Biden, Senator Chris Dodd remarked, "The fact that the Taliban and al-Qaeda have established critical sanctuaries in Pakistan from where they continue to launch and plan attacks five years after 9/11 is simply unacceptable. It reflects the misguided priorities and policies of this administration in fighting the war on terror. The government of Pakistan must do more in apprehending members of the Taliban and al-Qaeda and preventing their operations on its territory."[60]
On February 26, 2007, Vice President Dick Cheney (along with Stephen Kappes, the deputy CIA director) paid a visit to Islamabad, putting pressure on Musharraf to crack down on Islamic militants in the tribal areas. But, the Bush administration still viewed Musharraf as the only option for leading Pakistan, with no other palatable options. At the time of this visit, it was reported that Musharraf was considering a similar deal in the Bajur tribal area, as in North Waziristan, stating his view that "economic incentives and political moves were the best way to counter insurgents' influence in the tribal areas."[61]
The next day, Cheney was at Bagram air base in Afghanistan. While there, the base was targeted by a suicide bomber, killing 11. Such an attack is a sign that Al Qaeda and/or the Taliban had infiltrated Afghan intelligence services.[62]
Regarding U.S. support of Musharraf, former prime minister Benazir Bhutto remarked in March:
| “ | The West has been shortsighted in dealing with Pakistan. When the United States aligns with dictatorships and totalitarian regimes, it compromises the basic democratic principles of its foundation -- namely, life, liberty and justice for all. Dictatorships such as Musharraf's suppress individual rights and freedoms and empower the most extreme elements of society. Oppressed citizens, unable to represent themselves through other means, often turn to extremism and religious fundamentalism.[63] | ” |
In January, a political deal had emerged, to allow Benazir Bhutto to return from exile, and for presidential and parliamentary elections to be held.[64]
Part of the deal was that Bhutto agreed to allow Musharraf continue in power for another five-year term. In return, Bhutto demanded that Musharraf resign from his post as chief of the Army and any other military involvement. On returning, Bhutto would lead the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) in the elections. Under a power-sharing arrangement, Bhutto wants to become prime minister and lead the parliament, while Musharraf would continue as president.[65]
Musharraf was not keen on Bhutto taking any position of power.[66] His government has enacted a law that blocks a twice-elected prime minister from seeking a third term, essentially shutting out Bhutto from seeking power. But, if her PPP party wins the majority in Parliament, they can change that law and allow her to become prime minister.[67]
It is likely that people of Pakistan will rally around Bhutto and the PPP, which has a long history of opposing military rule. Though Bhutto left power years ago under charges of corruption, the general sentiment is that people are willing to give her another chance.[68]
Now, Musharraf is on shaky ground, with Islamic extremists gaining power in many areas, and he could use the help of Bhutto.[69]
The Pakistan People's Party (PPP) is led by Benazir Bhutto, while Nawaz Sharif leads the Pakistan Muslim League (PML).
Bhutto and Sharif, along with Makhdoom Amin Fahim and Qazi Hussain Ahmed, have attempted to form an alliance (Alliance for Restoration of Democracy), and work together to oust Musharraf. In 2006, they signed a "charter of democracy", signaling their goal of "democracy minus the military".[70] On March 21, Bhutto and Sharif met in London, where they discussed possibilities of working together and how to respond to the controversy surrounding the Chief Justice.[71] After the meeting, they announced that they were joining forces, with the ultimate goal of ousting Musharraf and allowing for free and fair elections.[72]
Pervez Musharraf would run under the Pakistan Muslim League party, along with its coalition partners.[73]
The Pakistan Christian National Party (PCNP) is a minor opposition party; says it will field a candidate.[77]
The PPP is undecided as to whether it will run a candidate. It depends on if Musharraf agrees to certain terms. Otherwise, the PPP will run Makhdoom Amin Fahim as a candidate.
A potential successor to Musharraf is Ahsan Saleem Hyat, the Vice-Chief of the Army, who could take over as head of the military, while Mohammedmian Soomro (a former banker) could take over as president.[78]
There are questions as to whether this will be a free and fair elections. The Election Commission and judiciary are strongly influenced and controlled by the military regime.[79]
On January 18, the government cabinet announced that Musharraf would seek re-election from the current National and Provincial Assemblies, before they are dissolved in November.[80] Opposition parties reacted strongly to this move. PPP spokesman Farhatullah Babar said the move "is unconstitutional and illegal, a mockery of democracy and devoid of any morality." But, the government said the move is in accordance with article 41 (4) of the Constitution, which say "Election to the office of president shall be held not earlier than 60 days and not later than 30 days before the expiry of the term of the president in office." In response, the PPP has considered resigning en-masse from parliament.
The re-election was also viewed as unconstitutional, because President Musharraf was also serving in a military role. (dual roles not permitted)[81] The Parliament permitted Musharraf to hold both offices in 2003, but that leeway expires in October with his term.[82]
On January 19, the government issued a warning to clerics, heading mosques and seminaries, "that they will be put behind the bars if they take part in anti-government activities or speak against President Musharraf."[83]
A meeting of opposition leaders was held on January 25, with exiled former prime minister and PNL leader Mian Nawaz Sharif, participating via teleconference. All were unanimous in the "view that the country was facing serious crisis and solution of all the internal and external threats lies in transfer of power to real public representatives after holding elections in a transparent manner. They further said the country cannot achieve the goal of progress and prosperity without real democracy in the country." Sharif warned that "Military Intelligence and ISI are active to rig the forthcoming general elections." Further, he said "Only through democratic forces, we can face internal and external threats effectively."[84] The Chief Election Commissioner, Qazi Mohammad Farooq, stated his resolve to hold free, fair and transparent elections.[85]
On September 25, Bhutto spoke on Capitol Hill to a packed room in the Russell Senate Building. She spoke about the current military dictatorship in Pakistan, under Musharraf, and expressed disappointment with U.S. support of the regime. She explained how the military dictatorship is fueling extremism in Pakistan.
Democracy in Pakistan would bring the rule of law to Pakistan. It would also help take the Taliban off the radar screen. An effective democratic government would also be able to deal with drug cartels, which have reasserted and help support Al Qaeda financially. The military dictatorship regimes in the 1980s supported the mujahadeen, and now are supporting extremists. The religion card is often played by the military dictatorship to hold on to power. The military dictatorship is the cause of the anarchic situation and extremism thrives under dictatorship.
The military dictatorship causes harm to the civil society, dismantling and blocking NGOs, undermining the judiciary, removing judges, and other such actions. Mosques become the only outlet for people.
The security agencies in the government are allowed to flourish under the military dictatorship. Officers from the 1980s are now running the intelligence agencies. These are the same ones that supported the mujahadeen in the 1980s. Religious extremism has expanded over the Musharraf regime, and the dismantling of democratic infrastructure.
The government has a role in appointing clerics to mosques. The government has been appointing many extremists to run mosques. During Friday prayers, people hear long lectures by radical clerics who were appointed by the "Ministry of Religious Affairs."
People want change.
There are fears in the U.S. and elsewhere that the extremists will win the election in Pakistan. Bhutto explains that the extremists never get more than 11 percent of the vote, and would get less than that this time. They will not be elected. Most people in Pakistan are moderate.
On October 18, Benazir Bhutto is returning to Pakistan (to Karachi) to coalesce forces against extremism -- the "moderate middle". She will work to mobilize the moderate middle. The goal is free and fair elections, with a civilian president who recognizes the supremacy of the parliament which is elected by and represents the people.
The dialogue between Bhutto and Musharraf has been stalled because of extremist elements in his party.
The PPP has yet to decide whether it will resign from parliament or not run at all. In order for it to stay, the PPP has some demands for Musharraf:
After her speech, Bhutto took questions from the audience.
In regards to corruption, she says that corruption under the Musharraf regime has been far greater than under past leaders. People do not have habeas corpus and other legal protections against the government.
Bhutto is cynical. She says the current party will do anything to disrupt democracy. Her husband has been held "hostage" to the regime. He has been in prison, without any convictions, for the past eight years. The Musharraf government has offered to release him, in exchange for conditions that Bhutto finds unacceptable.
It is essential that there be free and fair elections, though she is deeply concerned by actions taken by the government and the potential for corruption. 30 million people are now missing from the voting rolls. Issues are being taken up by the Supreme Court in Pakistan. She suggests that the National Identity Data Department has 70 million on its list, and suggests the lists be merged to come up with a more credible list. If that does not happen, the elections will be flawed.
What can the U.S. do to help? She suggests the U.S. could fund international monitoring teams for the election, as well as provide funds so that there is exit polling during the elections, to have independent numbers. Also, the election commission of Pakistan needs monitoring. It has happened in Pakistan that voting stations get moved at the last minute, and many people show up at the "wrong" location and do not get to vote. Such tactics to disrupt and corrupt the process may happen, and international monitoring can help.
The tribal areas have traditionally been recruiting grounds for soldiers. Now, those areas are havens for militant extremists. The government needs to go to these areas and provide for the people, secure them, and help them. There is a great need for the military to reclaim the tribal areas.
The role of the military? The military has dominated politics, with 19 of the past 30 years under direct military rule. These military dictatorship regimes have taken their toll on the people, as well as on the army. The army is now being targeted by militants, with numerous suicide bombings and other attacks. There is a sense within the military that they should withdraw from politics.
The military needs reform. Bhutto suggests that no one in the military be promoted if they have religious or political involvement.
Asked about A.Q. Khan, she says he is in violation of Pakistan's policies. She is strongly committed to not allowing Pakistan to export nuclear technology. She doesn't think he could have done it without some official support or at least some officials turning a "blind eye". There needs to be an investigation. She suggests the IAEA be invited in and allowed to investigate, question him, and ensure that export of technology will not happen now.
As for Iran, she hopes that Pakistan can help mediate the dispute between the U.S. and Iran.
If she is elected, the issues that need to take priority:
Provide basic needs for Pakistanis.
By addressing these needs, a democratic government can begin to undermine extremism and the militants, and reclaim the tribal areas.