Archive for 2007

More from Richard A. Clarke

Tuesday, November 13th, 2007

Richard A. Clarke spoke at the Middle East Institute conference at the end of October. He began by talking about Al Qaeda (previous post), and then about how to move forward and deal with Al Qaeda, as well as problems in Iraq and with Iran.

The Global War on Terrorism, “GWAT” as he terms it, is a misnomer. It is not global, and not so much a war, but rather a struggle against violent Islamic extremism. Al Qaeda uses terrorism as a tactic, in its quest to replace apostate governments in the Middle East with a Caliphate. Al Qaeda is not so much political (no programs and policies), but would lead similarly to the Taliban in Afghanistan in how women are treated, restrictions on cultural activities, and other such restrictions. Clarke advocates an intelligence/law enforcement approach, more so than a military approach. Key Al Qaeda leaders that have been captured thus far, they have been located and captured by intelligence or law enforcement. It is also required to challenge Al Qaeda on its ideology. The “Battle of Ideas” is critical in dealing with Al Qaeda.

The War in Iraq has damaged the credibility of the U.S. in Muslim countries. On the notion that “if the U.S. leaves Iraq, there will be chaos and Al Qaeda will build a sanctuary there”, Clarke asks “how would we know? how would chaos be different than the current situation”? Al Qaeda has already gone in, and have training opportunities in Iraq with targets brought to them. If Al Qaeda tries to build camps in Iraq, would the U.S have to accept that? No. Clarke explains that “We would ask the government to eliminate it. If they don’t we do.” That does not require the U.S. to have troops in Iraq, as the U.S. would still have air capabilities, as well as special forces stationed in the Persian Gulf region. Regarding Iran, Clarke does not support an aggressive, military approach towards them, as that only exacerbates the situation rather than helping.

Audio of his talk, as well as from other speakers, is available online at the conference website.

Richard A. Clarke on Al Qaeda threat

Thursday, November 1st, 2007

Richard A. Clarke, the chief counter-terrorism adviser under President Clinton and President Bush, spoke on Tuesday at the Middle East Institute Conference which took place at the National Press Club. He discussed various myths about Al Qaeda and the Middle East that are frequently heard.

Al Qaeda threat

- Two-thirds of top Al Qaeda leaders have been captured or killed
- By 2003-2004, Al Qaeda had become irrelevant and no longer mattered. They had become a “spent force”, in part because the United States invaded Afghanistan and “smashed” the sanctuary there and damaged Al Qaeda’s infrastructure.

Fact is that Al Qaeda has reconstituted in in northwest Pakistan, in Warziristan and along the Afghanistan border. Those leaders that have been captured, have since been replaced. Al Qaeda has been recruiting throughout the Islamic world, and has newly established training facilities where they teach recruits. Then, those recruits are sent back out in the world. Now, Al Qaeda is just as strong as they were pre-9/11, as documented in this year’s National Intelligence Estimate

Al Qaeda is as strong as ever, top leaders not captured, mid-level leaders replaced, and the group now poses a threat.

He also spoke about the “Global War on Terrorism”, Iraq, and Iran - summaries of his remarks will come in later posts here.

The Pentagon, the white plane

Tuesday, October 16th, 2007

There is a new video posted on Google Video, “Flight 77″ The White Plane, put together by Craig Ranke (aka Lyte Trip) and the “Citizen Investigation Team”. This is supplemental to their video, “The Pentacon”, which alleges that “Flight 77″ approached the Pentagon along a different flight path (north of the Citgo gas station) than the “official flight path”, which is based on evidence (the flight data recorder, downed light poles, and supported by witness accounts).

The CIT has been coming to Washington on a few occasions, including August 2006, where they go around interviewing 9/11 witnesses, often showing up unannounced. They coaxed two Pentagon police officers into saying the plane crossed over Columbia Pike, over the Navy Annex, and flew north of the Citgo. They include some other interviews in “The Pentacon” to support their theory. They say if the plane flew north of the Citgo, then evidence such as the downed light poles must have been planted by the government. And, the plane couldn’t have gotten low enough and crashed into the Pentagon. Instead, they say the plane did a “fly over” and went off somewhere. And, there was some other explosion at the Pentagon.

Lyte Trip’s north of the Citgo theory:
Lyte Trip's north of the citgo theory

Actual flight path:
Flight path

Close up view of actual flight path:
Flight path

Well, the plane was going so fast, passed over in just seconds before they saw it crash into the Pentagon. Details such as the exact flight path may be difficult to precisely recall, especially five years after the fact. There are witnesses that say things like, “In my adrenaline-filled state of mind, I was overcome by my visual senses.” (Penny Elgas) Surely, the experience makes some people numb, simply in shock. Still unmistakable that they saw the plane crash into the building, but when asked to recall details such as flight path, five years later, there may be some discrepancy in witness accounts. Accounts taken closer to the time of the attacks, particularly those in the days after the 9/11 attacks, would be more reliable in regards to details.

Screenshot of the “Flight 77″ The White Plane video - Craig on the left, talking to a witness:
Flight 77 White Plane

In this “White Plane” video, they ask some more witnesses about the color of the plane. With how fast the plane was going, how brief their glimpse of it, and how sunny it was, it may have appeared white to some people. And, surely it was extremely unexpected to see it pass over, as it did. The witnesses all describe seeing an American Airlines jet, a police officer thought it was “champagne” (more of a silvery/gray color), and they describe a plane with red and blue stripes, maroon writing/markings, and windows.

It is also important to note where these witnesses were at the time. They were at the Army-Navy Country Club and in the neighborhood, by Hoffman Boston Elementary School. All of these locations are closer to I-395, and at some distance away from Columbia Pike. From these locations, the plane would have continued on the straight line path and crossed south of the Citgo, before knocking down the light poles, and crashing into the Pentagon. This is entirely consistent with the “official flight path”, which again is based on evidence (the flight data recorder, downed light poles, etc.). These witnesses contradict “the Pentacon” and the “north of the Citgo” theory.

Tour of the new WTC7

Thursday, October 11th, 2007

This past Saturday, I had the opportunity to spent time at the new 7 World Trade Center. The New York Academy of Sciences (NYAS) held tours of their office on the 40th floor. There was also a special talk on Saturday about the lighting features of the building. I have now posted photos from the tour, as well as some from last year from a visit to the 45th floor, where there was a photography exhibit. The 45th floor was, and I think still is unfinished. Various other photos of the building are also included.

This is the entrance to the NYAS office on the 40th floor:



WTC7 - more photos

Costs

I think it’s useful to see the 45th floor (unfinished) compared to the 40th floor (finished). It cost $700 million for Larry Silverstein to build the new 7 WTC, but that’s with all the floors unfinished. What’s not figured in that price tag is that each floor needs to be finished and set-up for whatever needs the tenants have. The designers/architects who finished the space for the NYAS were on hand on Saturday. They explained that it cost $12 million to finish the 40th floor for the NYAS. In all, there are 42 floors of space to lease in the building. (along with the mechanical space used by Con Edison)

$12 million * 42 = $502 million.

$700 million (cost of the building) + $502 million = $1.3 billion

Silverstein received $861 million from insurance on the old building, however he had $400 million remaining in mortgage to pay off for the old building. He was left with $461 million. And, he still has to pay the the ground lease for WTC7 and the rest of the complex. ($102 million annually) - that’s $612 million since 9/11/2001

Also, it cost $1.4 billion to restore the adjacent Verizon Building, which was heavily damaged by the collapse of WTC7. Fiterman Hall, located next to WTC7, is currently undergoing deconstruction, and will be replaced with a new building. I’m not sure how much all that costs.

Do the math. In all, very substantial costs involved due to the collapse of WTC7, rather than people making a profit from insurance proceeds.

Anyway, the photos are posted here: (be patient for the page to load all images)

Lawrence Wright on Al Qaeda

Monday, September 24th, 2007

Lawrence Wright is the author of The Looming Tower, a Pulitzer Prize winning book that documents the rise of Al Qaeda. This morning, I had the opportunity to listen to him give a talk at the Middle East Institute in Washington, D.C. about Al Qaeda. He spoke of the misunderstanding that many in the U.S. have of Al Qaeda.

On “homeland security” measures, he feels that our reactions to terrorism have been overblown. Simple measures like hardening cockpit doors are effective, but other measures are overly drastic and deprive us of freedoms. (e.g. the security measures required to go see the Liberty Bell) Yet, Al Qaeda is real, and needs to be better understood in the United States and the threat managed more properly.

Wright spoke about the “goals” of Al Qaeda, and how it differs from other terrorist organizations, such as the IRA (Ireland), Hamas, and Hezbollah. The latter organizations do have some political goals and it is possible to negotiate with them. With Al Qaeda, they do not really have political goals in that sense.

  • One of their stated goals (from Bin Laden’s fatwas in the 1990s), is to get American troops out of Saudi Arabia. After the U.S. invaded Iraq, the U.S. government announced it would pull all troops out of Saudi Arabia (troops were there to provide security for Iraq’s no-fly zone). Al Qaeda’s response included the Riyadh compound bombings in May 2003, which killed 35 - mainly Muslims.
  • When Al Qaeda attacked Spain with the Madrid train bombings, it’s stated goal was to get Spain to overthrow the Jose María Aznar government, and get Spain to pull its troops out of Iraq. Within days after the bombing, Aznar was voted out, and the new government quickly announced it was pulling troops out of Iraq. That’s just what Al Qaeda wanted, right? Al Qaeda’s response? Another attempted (but unsuccessful) bombing on April 2, with the target this time, a high-speed train (AVE).[1]

Wright also spoke about reasons why young people in places like Saudi Arabia and Egypt, or Muslims in Europe, join Al Qaeda.

In Europe:

  • There is serious alienation of Muslims in Europe, including those born in Europe of Islamic heritage. Young Muslims in Europe often do not feel welcome, have difficulty finding jobs, experience poverty and other social problems. Muslims are also severely over-represented in prisons; For example, they comprise 50 percent of the prison population in France.[2] Being alienated, it’s common for European Muslims to turn to the Mosque. Some Mosques are radical, and are ripe recruiting grounds for Al Qaeda.

In Arab countries:

  • The economic future for young people is often bleak. They have little to look forward to, and radical Islam seems to be a good option in the view of some young people.
  • The lack of representation in government, and the oppressiveness of the regimes makes many young people feel alienated. The benefits of the oil economy often do not reach the people. Yet, America supports these regimes, and is a massive consumer of the oil.
  • The ways of civil society in many places, particularly Saudi Arabia, alienates young people - few places to gather and socialize, few parks, also not possible to gather and discuss politics, etc.
  • Gender apartheid strains society. Men are burdened with things like providing transportation for their wives and daughters, since women are not allowed to drive. This often means that men hire chauffeurs for their family, at significant cost. Wright also explains how the division between genders “deprives men of the civilizing effect that women can have” on them.

Wright believes there are things that can be done to lessen the reasons why young people join Al Qaeda.

  • A major excuse that Al Qaeda uses and a “cause” that many young people have when joining is the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Wright believes the content of the eventual peace agreement is largely known now. We know what it will be, but no one has had the political will to move on this. This is definitely a solvable problem. One, if solved, would not make Bin Laden very happy. Since, there would be less “cause” for many Arabs to join Al Qaeda. Wright believes that Al Qaeda would still exist, but lose substantial ground on recruitment.

From the perspective of the U.S., the government is having a very difficult time understanding the Arab culture and Arabic language, and thus is misguided on many efforts. One reason for that is the shortage of Arabic speakers and natives from those countries working in the U.S. government. For example, there are 12 Muslims currently working for the F.B.I., out of 38,000. The F.B.I. desperately needs more Arabic speakers. At the State Department, there are only 8 employees (out of 1,000) at the American embassy in Baghdad who speak Arabic. The security clearance barriers to hiring people desperately needed are much too high. He says that not hiring more of these people is a security risk for the U.S.

There are major disconnects and misunderstandings between Arab and American people, as well as grave problems in how Europe accepts Muslims in their countries. It is extremely difficult for Americans to understand just how different places like Saudi Arabia are, and the social/political problems and alienation that people there face, and how it creates a ripe recruiting ground for Al Qaeda.

Lawrence Wright is not only an author, but also a playwright and screenwriter. He is visiting Washington, for performances of his one-man show, “My Trip to Al-Qaeda” at the Kennedy Center.

Video: Collapse of WTC7

Wednesday, September 12th, 2007

I have posted a video showing the CBS footage of the collapse of 7 World Trade Center, with some annotation added. The video shows more than the seven seconds that many show. This is something simple, but couldn’t find anything out there like this. It shows the east penthouse collapsing then collapse of the entire structure, taking at least 13 seconds - contrary to other video clips that only show 7 seconds.

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